Greater Manchester's intensive care capacity 'could be overwhelmed within two weeks'

Projections produced by the Government suggested the region's hospitals risked being overwhelmed by November 12.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman told a Westminster briefing: "Cases in Greater Manchester continue to rise.

"In the over-60 age group, cases have tripled in the most recent 15 days of full data - there were 89 cases per 100,000 on September 27 compared to 282 per 100,000 on October 12.

"Hospital admissions in Greater Manchester are doubling every nine days."

Currently the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care is around 40% of that seen at the peak of the first wave.

But, assuming a 14-day doubling time - the "best case" according to the SPI-M modelling group - all free intensive care capacity would be used by October 28 and would pass the peak of the first wave by November 2.

Greater Manchester NHS said in a statement: "We are monitoring the situation with our hospital admissions, overall beds and ITU beds very, very closely. "It's not unusual for 80% to 85% of ICU beds to be in use at this time of year and our hospitals work together if there are particular pressures in any one area, to ensure the best care for patients who need the high level of support ICU provides, both for COVID and for other reasons."

The projections suggest Covid patients would take up the entire current intensive care capacity by November 8 and the entire surge capacity by November 12.

Asked if that meant hospitals being overwhelmed, the spokesman said: "Yes, that's the entire surge ICU capacity."

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said talks with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and local leaders were continuing.

"If at all possible, we do want to engage constructively with Greater Manchester and agree on a way forward," the spokesman said.

But if agreement cannot be reached, the Government will need to intervene "in order to protect hospitals and save the lives of residents".